The S&P 500 has historically remained neutral on average through the third quarter in midterm election years before gaining traction in the fourth quarter while at the same time experiencing heightened volatility throughout the year. Election seasonality may be playing an indirect role in this year’s volatility profile. While this does not downplay the inflationary backdrop, it’s certainly not an independent event that may be contributing to undue volatility.
Key Takeaway: The S&P 500 has historically remained neutral through the third quarter before gaining traction in the fourth quarter.
Key Takeaway: The S&P 500 has historically remained neutral through the third quarter before gaining traction in the fourth quarter.
*Returns one-year later are captured at the trough of the worst decline. This provides a backdrop of what an investor may have experienced during the entire volatility cycle (to the downside and to the ensuing upside).
Source: Bloomberg. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All information is historical and there is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Investment advice offered through CX Institutional, a Registered Investment Advisor.
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November 08, 2022
