The S&P 500 has historically remained neutral on average through the third quarter in midterm election years before gaining traction in the fourth quarter while at the same time experiencing heightened volatility throughout the year. Election seasonality may be playing an indirect role in this year’s volatility profile. While this does not downplay the inflationary backdrop, it’s certainly not an independent event that may be contributing to undue volatility.
S&P 500 Performance During Midterm Election Years
July 12, 2022|