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The Noise of Short-Term Volatility

Equity market volatility can often instill doubt in the ability of attaining positive long-term returns as risk-seeking investors. In fact, sharp decreases over shorter time frames can have a much greater fear impact than an elongated...

Real Estate and Inflation

Conventional wisdom suggests that investing in residential real estate during times of inflationary pressures may yield a more favorable total return outcome than being invested in stocks. The observed reality, however, is less...

Personal Savings Rate, Cash Assets, and Revolving Credit

The recent breakdown in the U.S. personal savings rate to near record lows has fueled the narrative that consumers are in dire need of cash heading into 2023. This is troublesome because consumer spending accounts for approximately two...

Capital Market Assumptions

Capital Market Expectations & Projected Portfolio ReturnsWhile Credent Wealth Management does not generate capital market expectations of our own, we do find it useful to aggregate data from numerous reputable financial institutions as...

Annual Returns

2022 was a challenging year for investors. U.S. equities fell 19%, its worst return since 2008, while U.S. Treasuries fell 12% as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed from 1.5% to 3.8%. It was a year dominated by...

Our View of 2023

Peak to Trough S&P 500 Declines during Recessions

Chart Content: S&P 500 performance measurements during two key intervals. The first being the period between the market’s peak and that of he start of a recession, and the second being the total peak-to-trough market...

Freight Tonnage as a Historical Recession Gauge

The transportation of goods across the country is something you likely witness on a daily basis. Hundreds of thousands of tons make their way across our highways on a monthly basis, involving hundreds of different carriers while...

International Diversification Over-Time

2022 serves as a strong reminder that financial markets can be volatile by nature and that different asset classes move in and out of favor over time. Today’s weekly market commentary highlights the benefits of global...

Inflation Remains Poised for Strong Downside

Chart Content: Twenty-year comparison of inflation (Consumer Price Index) to ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid.Chart Significance: Inflation in the United States has historically correlated positively with the rise, and drop, in the prices...

U.S. Money Market Assets

Volatility across capital markets is often a sign of cash exiting or entering a specific asset class, which can be defined as exposure to stocks, bonds, commodities, or any other investment that carries a reasonable liquidity profile....

S&P 500 Performance During Midterm Election Years

The S&P 500 has historically remained neutral on average through the third quarter in midterm election years before gaining traction in the fourth quarter while at the same time experiencing heightened volatility throughout the year....

Equity Returns and Economic Recessions

The idea of an economic recession carries a sense of fear among investors. Is that fear rationally justified? Perhaps. A “technical” recession becomes reality after two consecutive quarters of contracting gross...

U.S. Labor Market Conditions

The U.S. Labor Market Chart Book is a deep dive into labor market conditions, which continue to signal overwhelming tightness, putting upward pressure on wage growth and inflation despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. The...

The Rise and Fall of Shipping Costs

Chart Content: Five-year snapshot of global shipping rates via container ships.Chart Significance: The supply chain issues that emerged during the depths of the COVID pandemic resulted in shortages of goods and services in a way that...

U.S. Dollar Dominance

Chart Content: Year to date performance differentials between the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and U.S. Dollar.Chart Significance: The U.S. Dollar’s relentless climb since the beginning of 2022 is tightening financial...

Volatility Never Feels Normal

Stock market volatility has resurfaced, and it bears significance to gauge its source and its potential for sustained downside. We’re living in a short-term era of ambiguity that is exacerbated by the anticipated actions of the...

Assessing the Correction

Chart Content: Annualized S&P 500 Index returns over the past 25 years compared to annualized S&P 500 Index returns over the same timeframe when missing the top 10, 20, 30, and 40 days in the marketChart Significance: Missing the best...

Gold and Inflation

Conventional wisdom suggests that investing in gold during times of inflationary pressures may yield a more favorable total return outcome than being invested in stocks. The observed reality, however, is less exciting. In tracking the...

Time IN the Market is More Important Than TIMING the Market

Time in the MarketChart Content: Annualized S&P 500 Index returns over the past 25 years compared to annualized S&P 500 Index returns over the same timeframe when missing the top 10, 20, 30, and 40 days in the marketChart Significance:...

Short Term Pessimism Following Annual Federal Reserve Meeting

Returns after Volatility:Interest rates are heading higher:The reality of interest rates is simple, despite the on-going rhetoric that attempts to overcomplicate its narrative. If the expectation for economic growthis that it will...

Three Key Charts on Inflation

Chart Content: Measures of inflation and components of the consumer price index (CPI).Chart Significance: U.S. headline consumer prices eased to a lower than expected 8.5% year over year in July, from a four decade high of 9.1% in June...

Peak To Trough Declines During Recession

Chart Content: S&P 500 performance measurements during two key intervals. The first being the period between the market’s peak and that of the start of a recession, and the second being the total peak-to-trough market downside...

S&P 500 Performance and Recessions

Chief Investment Officer Edison Byzyka, CFA and CEO David Hefty, CFP® walk you through understanding what the announcement of a recession means & how this may impact investing for the foreseeable future.Recessions are often...

S&P 500 Performance During Midterm Election Years

 the S&P 500 has historically remained neutral on average through the third quarter in midterm election years before gaining traction in the fourth quarter while at the same time experiencing heightened volatility throughout the...

Two Key Charts on Inflation

Chart Content: Measures of core goods inflation and core services inflationChart Significance: Fiscal stimulus provided during the COVID pandemic combined with government mandated lockdowns resulted in unprecedented demand for consumer...

Sentiment And Market Returns

2022 has been a tough year for investors with both stocks and bonds down sharply from recent highs. Add to that decades-high inflation, an aggressive Federal Reserve, COVID-19 restrictions, and the ongoing war in Ukraine, it may come...

Six Key Charts On Recessions

Executive SummaryThe Federal Reserve and other central banks have begun to raise interest rates to temper global inflation. This restrictive monetary policy will cause global growth to slow, triggering markets to worry more about...

Assessing The Correction

Chart Content: Rolling 12-month S&P 500 valuation based on realized earningsChart Significance: The recent volatility in the S&P 500 has resulted in valuation downside that remains three times (3x) the pace of that experienced during...

An Update On Volatility

Volatility is almost always associated with losing value. Although that’s true for those investors that willfully liquidate their holdings, long‐term investors have historically seen tremendous benefits from times of equity...

Updated Snapshot Of March 2022 Commentary

Three Key Charts Of The Week

Revisiting Annual Volatility

Rising Rates, Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Five Key Charts On Inflation

Revisiting Focusing On Consumers

Five Charts Of The Week

Annual Volatility

U.S. Money Market Assets

The Allure Of Volatility - Charts Edition

The Russia/Ukraine Conflict And Portfolio Positioning

Annual Volatility

Expect Slowing Growth - No Need For Panic

S&P 500 Volatility During Midterm Election Years

Volatility Never Feels Normal

Inflation In Perspective