Blog

Three Key Charts on Inflation

Chart Content: Measures of inflation and components of the consumer price index (CPI).Chart Significance: U.S. headline consumer prices eased to a lower than expected 8.5% year over year in July, from a four decade high of 9.1% in June...

Peak To Trough Declines During Recession

Chart Content: S&P 500 performance measurements during two key intervals. The first being the period between the market’s peak and that of the start of a recession, and the second being the total peak-to-trough market downside...

S&P 500 Performance and Recessions

Chief Investment Officer Edison Byzyka, CFA and CEO David Hefty, CFP® walk you through understanding what the announcement of a recession means & how this may impact investing for the foreseeable future.Recessions are often...

S&P 500 Performance During Midterm Election Years

 the S&P 500 has historically remained neutral on average through the third quarter in midterm election years before gaining traction in the fourth quarter while at the same time experiencing heightened volatility throughout the...

Two Key Charts on Inflation

Chart Content: Measures of core goods inflation and core services inflationChart Significance: Fiscal stimulus provided during the COVID pandemic combined with government mandated lockdowns resulted in unprecedented demand for consumer...

Sentiment And Market Returns

2022 has been a tough year for investors with both stocks and bonds down sharply from recent highs. Add to that decades-high inflation, an aggressive Federal Reserve, COVID-19 restrictions, and the ongoing war in Ukraine, it may come...

Six Key Charts On Recessions

Executive SummaryThe Federal Reserve and other central banks have begun to raise interest rates to temper global inflation. This restrictive monetary policy will cause global growth to slow, triggering markets to worry more about...

Assessing The Correction

Chart Content: Rolling 12-month S&P 500 valuation based on realized earningsChart Significance: The recent volatility in the S&P 500 has resulted in valuation downside that remains three times (3x) the pace of that experienced during...

An Update On Volatility

Volatility is almost always associated with losing value. Although that’s true for those investors that willfully liquidate their holdings, long‐term investors have historically seen tremendous benefits from times of equity...

Updated Snapshot Of March 2022 Commentary

Three Key Charts Of The Week

Revisiting Annual Volatility

Rising Rates, Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Five Key Charts On Inflation

Revisiting Focusing On Consumers

Five Charts Of The Week

Annual Volatility

U.S. Money Market Assets

The Allure Of Volatility - Charts Edition

The Russia/Ukraine Conflict And Portfolio Positioning

Annual Volatility

Expect Slowing Growth - No Need For Panic

S&P 500 Volatility During Midterm Election Years

Volatility Never Feels Normal

Inflation In Perspective

Our View Of 2022

Interest Rates And Stocks

The Path To Year-End Remains Positive

Interest Rates Are Heading Higher

Assessing The Impact From The New COVID Variant

The shortened holiday week ended on a sour note as global equity markets experienced a strong dose of volatility on Friday following news of the new Omicron COVID variant. We learned of cases spiking in South Africa and it is now...

Retail Sales Amidst Inflation

Are thoughts more important than actions? Or is it vice versa? There is an underlying belief that our thoughts guide and influence our actions both at home and at work. Such thoughts can also provide a tremendous backdrop on how we...

Revisiting Inflation In Perspective

The topic of inflation is often one of the most misunderstood topics among investors. It can spur emotions that can often appear highly subjective and largely speculative. Part of the reason for such emotion is that investors have a...

Revisiting Focusing On The Recovery

Maintaining a long-term perspective is often easier said than done. Short-term economic swings can easily trigger emotions that may force investors to act irrationally in how they interpret forthcoming economic growth or even how they...

Corporate Earnings and Inflation

The topic of inflation continues to dominate headlines and it appears to be largely misunderstood, or perhaps misguided on why we’re seeing short-term inflationary pressures. It’s important to first acknowledge the fact...

Assessing the Labor Market

The September labor market report stole the limelight last week as we gained a deeper understanding of the ongoing dynamic between new jobs, supply chain issues, and the effects that they both carry on potential inflationary pressures....

A Focus On Volatility - Providing Clarity

Equity market volatility generated headlines last week as global stocks retreated from their record highs. Although we would classify the movement as uneventful and completely normative to the short-term market cycle, investors can...

Focusing On Consumers

The mild volatility of global equity markets this week has already dwarfed the previous week’s economic news cycle. This is an all too familiar occurrence and it affirms the theme of last week’s commentary, which focused on...

The Fascination Of Bear Markets

Investors are fascinated with the possibility of bear markets, and they are often fixated on attempting to predict when the next one will occur. The notion of declining stock prices tends to dominate more investment conversations than...

Revisiting the Flaws of Prediction

Our commentary this week is re-introducing the concept of generating predictions, a topic that was extensively discussed during the release of our commentary on April 6th, 2021. Similar to now, the market environment in early April was...

Revisiting Stocks In Lieu of Bonds

Global equity markets gained measurable strength during the week amidst what may have been construed as an unconventional window of opportunity. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks that further bolstered the...

Assessing The Wall Of Worry

The confluence of political and market events over the past few weeks has generated a wall of worry that investors have largely disregarded. The Federal Reserve’s stance on tightening monetary policy, in addition to the delta...

Revisiting Our Perspective On The Domestic Economic Recovery

The separation of equity markets and the economy is often misunderstood by many market participants. Conventional wisdom suggests that they should move in tandem, yet the reality does not comply by such a simple explanation. Although...

Household Income Revisited

The quarterly trend in earnings growth continues to post impressive figures as nearly all S&P 500 companies have reported results. The backdrop of a healthy consumer has generated a wave of spending from pent-up-demand unlike anything...

Earnings Notch Higher

The resounding health of the U.S. consumer has been a topic of discussion since the depths of the bear market in March 2020. Conventional wisdom does not necessarily align declining stock prices with maintained consumer health, but...

Inflation Is Often Stable, Ignore The Outliers

The word inflation is often misunderstood by many investors. Even economists tend to disagree on how to best decipher inflation or how to best calculate it. The concept of inflation also takes the form of personalization, a notion that...

Your Personalized Rate of Inflation

Coverage of economic data points last week was once again centered on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), otherwise known as inflation. We learned that prices in June rose by an annualized 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, marking a...

Halftime Assessment - Our View Of 2021

This commentary is an updated perspective of Our View Of 2021. To view the original assessment, click here. Notes on Increasingly Optimistic > Labor Market & Consumer Sentiment Our assessment of the labor market heading into the...

Returns After Volatility

Investors’ fears of stock market volatility are often emotionally guided and can generate passionate desires to exit equity market participation. Such emotions tend to appear heightened during times of equity market record highs,...

Investments Are A Tool, Not A Plan

The concepts of risk and uncertainty are often mistakenly intertwined across financial media and across the financial services industry. The difference between the two, however, cannot be more drastic. Uncertainty falls in the category...

A Two-Day Forecast Versus A Two-Year Forecast

Economic theory and economic reality are often two misunderstood concepts that can cause short-term confusion for capital markets and can create havoc for investors. In fact, the line between those two concepts can seem so blurred that...

Inflation Revisited

This week we are revisiting the data we reported on in our May 25th commentary. The data and commentary have been updated to reflect the latest May 2021 figures. We maintain a fundamental and data driven belief that the current...

Accepting A Different Normal

Global equity markets have once again reached all-time highs after briefly losing that title in early May. Such market positioning tends to always generate newfound worries from investors and such worries are always tied to the...

SECURE Act 2.0: Further Changes Across the Retirement Plan Landscape

At Credent Wealth Management, our goal is to keep you informed about relevant policies that could impact your financial plan. As with our other Credent Connect releases, these highlights will tend to focus on personal financial...

Inflation In Perspective

The topic of inflation is often one of the most misunderstood topics among investors. It can spur emotions that can often appear highly subjective and largely speculative. Part of the reason for such emotion is that investors have a...

Focusing On The Recovery

Maintaining a long-term perspective is often easier said than done. Short-term economic swings can easily trigger emotions that may force investors to act irrationally in how they interpret forthcoming economic growth or even how they...

Our Emotions And Biases Revisited

Recognizing the top three behavioral biases Participating in the equity market can often trigger numerous emotions for many investors. Those emotions can range from mild fear, to excitement, to euphoria, or to downright panic. Our...

Revisiting Modern Portfolio Theory (Diversification)

For those investors not familiar with modern portfolio theory, it is a concept introduced in the early 1950s that brought to light the notion of proper portfolio diversification for a given rate of desired equity market participation....

Taxes Are In The Spotlight - Again

Tax policy changes are once again in the spotlight and the lack of defined clarity – at least for now – is leaving investors jittery. The known unknowns have compounded over the past week and we have witnessed a surge in...

Stock Market Volatility

Stock market volatility has been evident in every single year over the past 25 years. This has occurred in times of bull markets as well as bear markets. It is an inevitable part of a normal market cycle and it bares significance to...

Does It Feel Like The Stock Market Is Sprinting?

Global equity markets have posted strong returns thus far in 2021 following what turned out to be a stellar finish to 2020. Diversified portfolios that are structured with a full equity market participation mandate have outpaced bonds...

The Flaws Of Prediction

We all know that predicting the future is nearly impossible, despite our continuous efforts to seek predictions. It is counterintuitive, isn’t it? We know we cannot rely on such estimated forecasts, yet we thrive on the ability...

What You Need To Know About Charitable Giving

At Credent Wealth Management, our goal is to keep you informed about relevant policies that could impact your financial plan. We want to share with you a few of those potential updates worth mentioning. As with our other Credent...

Assessing The Housing Boom – Is This Time Different?

One of the most dangerous phrases that an investment manager can often say is that “things seem different this time around”. It is a phrase meant to cast a shadow on the belief that risks seem largely minimal within the...

The $2 Trillion Savings Account

American households are expected to hold nearly $2 trillion in savings accounts by April 2021 following the latest direct payments from the fiscal stimulus package. The enormity of such a figure cannot be underscored and its potential...

Interest Rates Are Likely Heading Higher

The reality of interest rates is simple, despite the on-going rhetoric that attempts to overcomplicate its narrative. If the expectation for economic growthis that it will return to pre-COVID levels then interest rates are headed...

President Biden’s Tax Legacy Continued

At Credent Wealth Management, our goal is to keep you informed about relevant policies that could impact your financial plan. We want to share with you a few of those potential updates worth mentioning. As with our other Credent...

President Biden’s Tax Legacy: How To Plan With Educated Guesses

At Credent Wealth Management, our goal is to keep you informed about relevant policies that could impact your financial plan. We want to share with you a few of those updates. As with our other Credent Connect releases, these...

Household Income Soars - Spending Likely To Follow

Our assessment of the U.S. economy, on a forward-looking basis, remains highly supportive of renewed growth, increased consumer sentiment, and an overall propensity to return to normal, or at least a version of what we knew as normal....

The Emotions Of Innovation

Most investors would agree that innovation promotes growth over the long-term. Such growth can translate into a stronger economy, stronger market growth, standard of living improvements or a combination of all three. The term...

Buy The Rumor And Sell The News Revisited

This week’s commentary references our November 20th, 2020, commentary where we focused on the market’s performance relative to the on-going positive vaccine news. Like now, the path of equity market performance leading up...

Taxes Are Likely Heading Higher - What Now?

Global equity markets gained tremendous ground last week as the prospects of added fiscal stimulus have once again spurred optimism, and rightly so. Unlike previous stimulus efforts, the current proposal is targeted for those that have...

Government Spending and Inflation

We have extensively covered inflation topics over the past three months, yet it bares significance to further elaborate on the topic given our better understanding of fiscal policy guidelines that President Biden would like to...

When Will The Market Correct?

The gains across global equity markets over the past six months have both surprised and frightened investors. Although it is always welcoming to see portfolios increase in value, the idea that the increase may be fueled by a complete...

The Consolidated Appropriations Act - What It Means

As you might be aware, on December 21, 2020, the Consolidated Appropriations Act was passed by both houses of Congress. After major delays due to printing issues, the final bill finished at 5,500+ pages. Here is the full PDF. This...

Our View of 2021

Annual Volatility

Please reference the Annual Volatility one-pager as a supplement to this commentary The normal cycle of volatility is one that few of us are willing to accept. After all, the notion of equity markets declining by nearly -34% in a mere...

Beware Of Your Bond Portfolio in 2021

The lack of economic growth in 2020 has gained tremendous attention over the past nine months, second only to the human and emotional toll caused by the recent pandemic. As unfortunate as it is, many of you have likely had direct, or...

Re-visiting The Prospects Of Inflation

The government’s fiscal and monetary policy response to COVID-19 this year has fueled the discussion on one of the most misunderstood components of the economy to levels that may seem unrealistic, at least in our view. We are...

International Diversification Is Gaining Ground

Global equity markets continued to gain steam last week as the prospect of a COVID-19 vaccine has generated tremendous economic growth optimism. Market participants have appropriately converted such optimism into potential future...

Buy The Rumor And Sell The News?

There is no hiding the fact that near-term optimism tied to economic growth has surged in the current environment. One can simply reference the gains across global equity markets as an example. Or, better yet, spend a few minutes...

COVID’s Economic Impact – Version 2.0

The resurgence of COVID-19 cases across the country has given new light to the potential for further economic turbulence heading into 2021. The wounds of the recent bear market remain relatively fresh and many Americans continue to...

The Winner Of The Election May Be The Stock Market

The U.S. Presidential election has received tremendous attention over the recent past and it appears that media coverage will continue to reflect a heightened approach to all developments. From a stock market perspective, however, the...

The Cyle of Long-Term Returns Remains Intact

As the noise of the U.S. election continues to grasp media headlines, I want to share with you a viewpoint that attempts to remove us from the short-term and focuses on the long-term. Conventional wisdom may suggest that the recent...

Going to cash - why, when, how, and how much?

Occam’s razor. Have you heard of it? If not, you are likely in the majority. Occam’s razor is a principle named after William of Ockham, a philosopher and theologian, who lived during the middle ages. The principle states...

Where do I put my Sunglasses?

It is the little things in life that matter, right? We are all likely familiar with such a statement, yet it often goes overlooked in our personal and professional lives. The busy nature of life makes it easy to focus on things that...

Should I Go To Cash?

Thank you for joining us for this segment of our mini-series, Your Money and the Election: Stop Fear and Take Control. In this episode, we’re going to be addressing a question that we have heard from many people as we enter...

Why Fear Holds You Back (And How To Overcome It)

In the fourth part of our mini-series, Your Money and the Election: Stop Fear and Take Control, Credent Wealth Management CEO and CIO discuss one of the most difficult emotions for people to overcome: fear. Find out why fear may hold...

Outlook for More COVID Relief

Watch Chief Investment Officer, Edison Byzyka, on the TD Ameritrade Network give his outlook on more COVID relief. Click Here to Watch

Death By Taxes: Will the Election Throw a Wrench Into Your Plan?

In the third part of our mini-series, Your Money and the Election: Stop Fear and Take Control, Credent Wealth Management CEO and CIO tackle a topic on everyone's mind: Taxes. Wondering if the election will throw a wrench into your tax...

Stocks in Lieu of Bonds

As the economic recovery gains stronger footing in the aftermath of the COVID-19 bear market, the relationship between stocks and bonds provides ample historical evidence of what may come next. Although the possibility for short-term...

Investing in Gold: Feast or Famine?

In the second video of our mini-series, Your Money and the Election: Stop Fear and Take Control, Credent Wealth Management CEO and CIO dive into a hot-button topic: Is investing in gold another California gold rush or simply fools...

Is TINA still alive?

Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, investors all over the world were introduced to the acronym ‘TINA’, which stands for ‘There Is No Alternative’. It was meant to signify to investors that purchasing stocks...

Presenting New Election Video Series

Credent Wealth Management introduces our new mini-series, Your Money and the Election: Stop Fear and Take Control led by CEO, David Hefty, and CIO, Edison Byzyka. Throughout this series we aim to lead you, your money, and your emotions...

True or False: This Election Cycle is Different

Election season is here, and it is gearing up to be like every other election cycle we have witnessed in the past 100 years. Although it may seem that this time is somehow different, we urge you to not fall victim to such a simple...

Returns After Volatility

The spectacular upside of domestic and international equity markets, since the depths of the bear market in March, has been one for the record books. You have likely heard us say that repeatedly over the past few months and we’re...

The Economic Rebound May Be Stronger Than Anticipated

Third quarter U.S. annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to rise by 25.6%. That is the current estimate of the Atlanta Federal Reserve within their GDPNow forecast. The model is a widely utilized tool for assessing...

Inflation Expectations

Will Inflation destroy any chance of an economic recovery? The recent narrative that inflationary pressure will derail the economic recovery has been a popular topic. And rightfully so. When simply gauging broad headlines tied to how...

The Stimulus Package Waiting Game

Domestic equity markets remained upbeat last week as investors’ focus remained glued on Washington. The anticipation of a stimulus package announcement has been the main theme over the past few months yet there has been little...

We Just Witnessed History - Enjoy It While It Lasts

Of the many unknowns in the current economic environment, the most anticipated data point became a known fact last week. The U.S. economy shrank at a quarterly annualized historic rate of -32.9%, as measured by GDP (gross domestic...

Outpacing Estimates-Earnings in the Spotlight

Earnings announcements have taken center stage over the past few weeks as nearly a third of S&P 500 constituents have reported results. Such quarterly results have been dismal as the impact from the global pandemic has resulted in...

Worst Weakness in a Decade for Big Tech

The performance leadership of a handful of technology stocks over the past few years has been a dominant theme. In fact, such unmatched gains have captured similar potential risks as the technology bubble of the early 2000s. Although...

The Best Days Come in Bear Markets

Click Here to Download: The Best Days Come in Bear Markets

The penalty of sensible decision making

One of the most observed facts about investing for retail investors is that their long-term investment goals are often clouded by short-term noise, or uncertainty. Such noise can often reflect our emotional bias to forego objectivity...

Tracking July 4th fireworks as a sign of sentiment

Tracking consumer sentiment is just as much art as it is science. There are broadly known indicators that have tracked sentiment for decades and such data has proven fairly accurate in attempting to gauge shifting economic trends over...

Accept the Unknown – It May Save Your Retirement

Edison Byzyka, CFA – Chief Investment Officer – Credent Wealth Management The consensus narrative in the stock market appears to be one of renewed volatility. It is as if market participants have magically discovered the...

The Swedish Model May Boost Stocks

Domestic economic data released last week proved to gain upside in tandem, which showcased the event-driven nature of the recent economic downturn. This bolsters the notion that the short-lived bear market was not a result of...

Volatility is normal, especially now

The return of equity market volatility proved globally dominant during the week as most indices fared the worst downside since March. The FTSE All-World Equity Index closed lower by over -4% while the domestic based Standard &...

Labor Market Shock Wave

Global equity markets continued their impressive recovery last week as investors resumed a dominant risk-on environment, which implies a bias to favoring stocks over bonds. Through Thursday, it appeared that the upside may have been...

The Stock Market and the Economy are not the Same Thing

The global economic shock since early March has been one of historic proportions. It is likely safe to assume that all of us have felt its impact, or at least know of someone that has been adversely affected. As we now start to...

Dismal Labor Market Update

Weakness in key economic data points should not be a surprise to market participants by now. It has been highly evident over the past month that economic forecasts by economists have failed to appropriately capture the magnitude of...

Measuring the economic impact of COVID-19

The highly anticipated quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) contraction became a reality last week as we finally got a preliminary sense of how COVID-19 has impacted economic growth. The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized pace of...

Recognizing the Top Three Behavioral Biases

Download this one-pager! AVAILABLE HERE

Assessing the Short-Term Economic Impact

The on-going release of weak economic data points across the globe is now in its second week and there’s no hiding the fact that an economic contraction is inevitable. Further weakness across key sectors continues to be expected...

Not all Bear Markets are Created Equal

Bear markets can be categorized as structural, cyclical, or event-driven, with each having their own unique set of characteristics. Although it’s important to recognize the impact that each bear market can have on financial...

Making history. Daily.

It has become widely known by now that the current status of the equity bear market was achieved at the fastest pace in U.S. history. After all, if you simply recall the media headlines of early March you will find a drastic contrast...

The Depth of Uncertainty Has Grown Once Again

The on-going coronavirus issues that have recently plagued the global economy appeared to take a minor break during the week as its effect on global equity market activity did not materialize with a similar fury as what we experienced...

Global Stocks Go On Sale

The unprecedented equity market volatility last week set the record for the fastest correction in U.S. history. The speed at which the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index dropped from its record high, down to a -11.50% downside,...

The Path to Further Uncertainty

We have been using the term ‘uncertainty’ a lot lately and it appears that the on-going roller coaster of news stemming from the coronavirus may cause us to continue using that term over the next few months. Internally, the...

Virus Fears Appear More Subdued

Global equity markets gained ground last week as positive sentiment tied to the containment efforts of the coronavirus proved optimistic. Domestic economic data releases may have also spurred upside given the continued general...

Risk Sentiment Turns Back On

Global equity markets captured impressive upside during the week as news from China eased immediate concerns for an economic slowdown in the region. China’s central bank added additional stimulus and managed to reaffirm the...

Assessing Recent Volatility

Global equity market volatility has gained tremendous attention over the past few weeks as major indices captured marginal downside. The on-going news tied to the coronavirus has been largely blamed for the recent volatility as...

Uncertainty Fuels Risk-Off Sentiment

Economic data points remained relatively light during the week and left investors with few objective factors to consider when gauging risk sentiment. News of the coronavirus outbreak in China was immediately targeted as the culprit for...

Housing Market Strength

Positive economic and trade related events boosted investors’ optimism during the week as many global equity indices reached new highs. Wednesday’s ceremonial signing of the Phase One trade deal with China provided for a...

Returning to a Normal Labor Market

The highly anticipated December 2019 labor market report was released last week, and the data revealed the initial trend for a potential return to normalcy. The economy added 145,000 jobs, a figure that was below economists’...

Our View of 2020

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific adviceor recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your...

Geopolitical Tensions Rise

The New Year started off with what appeared to be promising momentum on the trade front with China. President Trump’s recent announcement that a ‘Phase One’ trade deal would be signed by both parties on January 15 was...

A Holly Jolly End to the Year

Justified optimism. Those two words summarize our view of the year, especially as it relates to global equity market activity and that of consumer health. The start of the year proved to be rather tumultuous following the equity market...

Trade Deal on the Horizon

The potential for a new trade deal with China remained high during the week as we learned that a solution may be near. Comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that a deal may be completed in January and that both sides would...

Neutral Stance on Interest Rates

The highly anticipated interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve revealed a rather interesting outlook during the week. Although interest rates will remain unchanged for the near-term, we learned that the likelihood of a similar...

Stellar Labor Market Update

Economic data releases remained plentiful during the week, yet it was the release of the November labor market report that stole the limelight. The U.S. economy added an impressive 266,000 private jobs last month. The report also...

Economic Growth Revised Higher

The latest revision of third quarter annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth revealed a higher than expected figure at 2.1% relative to the previous 1.9%. Although the absolute growth rate remains below historical norms, the...

Economic Data Remains Positive, Despite Volatile Sentiment

The on-going tug-of-war tied to positive and negative trade talk developments with China remained largely unchanged during the week. The uncertainty surrounding a potential truce, or any form of a trade deal, failed to materialize as...

Trade Talks and Impeachment Inquiries

Media headlines remained rampant during the week as trade talk developments and impeachment proceedings provided an abundance of material for amplified and highly subjective conclusions. The effects of such headlines played a critical...

Winning Streak for Equities

The fundamental well-being of the economy took center stage during the week and became a driver of sentiment for equities. Earnings have certainly been a positive driver, yet sentiment tied to risk assets has favored economic...

Economic Data Overload

The abundance of data releases last week provided for an objective assessment of economic health as well as a glimpse of overall investor sentiment tied to non-political data. The FTSE All-World equity index gained 1.35% while the...

Taking a Pause From Politics

The lack of political and trade related influence during the week allowed market participants to focus on the current earnings season, along with macroeconomic data releases, as the main factors for market activity. Although such a...

Muddling Through, in a Good Way

The quarterly earnings season remained vibrant during the week as results managed to post minimal upside surprises, something that was largely unexpected. Approximately 15% of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 companies have reported...

Live Interview on the TD Ameritrade Network

Edison Byzyka, CFA, of discusses economic activity and capital markets with the TD Ameritrade Network. Click Here to View Video The information provided here is for general information only and should not be considered an...

Hope on the Horizon… For Now??

Positive sentiment reigned supreme across the globe last week as broad equity indices gained upside and overall news favored the potential for trade resolutions. Discussions between the U.S. and China raised renewed hopes for a deal...

Manufacturing Data Takes Center Stage

U.S. manufacturing data dominated headlines during the week as we learned of a notable slump in the sector that dragged the ISM Manufacturing Index into a deeper contractionary phase and has now resulted in a reading that matches a...

An Additional Ounce of Uncertainty

It’s widely known that market participants highly dislike uncertainty, irrespective of whether markets move higher or lower. The current negotiations for a better trade deal with China have more than produced their fair share of...

The Federal Reserve in Action

The highly anticipated interest rate cut announcement by the Federal Reserve proved to be a rather muted event last week given that market participants had priced-in the decision. Global equity markets shrugged off the actual event...

Oil Market Volatility

News over the weekend of an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries sent Brent Crude oil prices soaring by as much as 12% and brought into question the current supply of oil inventories in the event of a true catastrophic event....

Risk Assets Push Higher

The hopeful shiny glimmers of a renewed trade deal with China were once again largely responsible for the upside across global equity markets last week. Although it’s hard for us to objectively quantify such an outcome, we are...

Live Interview on the TD Ameritrade Network

Edison Byzyka, CFA, discusses economic activity and capital markets with the TD Ameritrade Network. Click Here to View Video The information provided here is for general information only and should not be considered an individualized...

Consumer Consumption Shines Amidst Slower Growth

The second revision of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second quarter revealed a 2% annualized rate, matching economists’ expectations and revealing a decline from the initial 2.1% figure. The lower revision...

Tag, You're It!

It appears that the U.S. and China have entered into a game of tag, of which the consequences have tremendous implications across global equity markets, monetary policy decisions, and investor sentiment. The FTSE All World equity index...

Trade Worries Amidst Positive Economic Data

The balance of positive economic news during the week appeared to blend well with the on-going trade war uncertainties between the U.S. and China. Such a noted blend, however, did not come without the expense of strong volatility, both...

Trade War, Currencies, and Volatility

Global equity markets started the week on a worrisome note following the Chinese government’s decision to devalue their currency, an action that was a direct result of further tariffs proposed, and initiated, by President Trump....

Volatility Takes Center Stage

The events that transpired during this past week were undoubtedly vast and equally critical to the assessment of investors’ sentiment toward equity markets and the overall economy. Whether evaluating the Federal Reserve’s...

Slower Economic Growth Amidst Higher Consumer Spending

Our headline for this week’s commentary may sound counterintuitive given that higher consumer spending does not typically correlate well with slower economic growth. In fact, it should boost upside given that consumer consumption...

Earnings Season is Underway

The highly anticipated quarterly earnings season is well underway, and the focus will remain glued to the potential for upside surprise to earnings. The reason for such needed hype stems from the fact that the expectations are set for...

Interest Rates on the Front Lines

Global equity markets failed to post gains during the week as the looming uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy appeared to once again remain a dominant talking point. Despite such lack of clarity, however, U.S. large capitalization...

Labor Market Upside Surprise

The path of interest rates for the remainder of the year has become a focal point for economists and investors alike. The Federal Reserve’s data dependency stance, which indicates that their decision for lowering, or raising,...

Trade Hopes at the G20

Global market participants pushed equity prices higher during the week as sentiment appeared to favor a hopeful and positive outcome tied to trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The catalyst for the upbeat sentiment can be...

The Federal Reserve in the Global Spotlight

The news from the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting during the week indicated that interest rates in the U.S. will remain as is for the immediate future. Although global market participants were not...

Small Business Optimism Tops Estimates

Positive risk-on sentiment toward global equities appeared dominant early in the week following announcements that a deal between the U.S. and Mexico had been reached, although nothing definitive was released. The news came on the...

The Federal Reserve to the Rescue

The lingering downside effects of potential Mexico tariffs were highly expected to dominate market sentiment throughout the week, yet that notion did not materialize as conventional wisdom may have suggested. The Federal Reserve...

Adding Fuel to Further Uncertainty

Potential trade war escalations were highly evident during the week as the rhetoric between the United States and China substantially increased. Equity market participants punished risk assets to the downside as a near-term solution...

Volatility Resurgence

Global equity markets favored downside volatility during the week as investors were once again attempting to gauge uncertainty tied to the trade discussions between the U.S. and China. The domestic Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500...

Consumer Sentiment Remains Upbeat

Amidst the on-going trade discussions between the U.S. and China, domestic data releases during the week provided a positive glimpse on overall sentiment figures for consumers and for small businesses. The positive upside to both...

Trade Uncertainty Takes Center Stage

The ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China resumed violently during the week as the President tweeted on Sunday, May 5th, on the intentions of increasing Chinese tariffs to as high as 25% from the current 10% tariff. The net...

Economic Growth Surprise in Europe

Economic data throughout the week proved to be a balance of disappointing manufacturing data from China, neutral earnings announcements from U.S. corporations, and better than expected economic growth data in Europe, which was highly...

Domestic Growth Posts Upside

The preliminary release of annualized domestic economic growth (gross domestic product) for the first quarter of 2019 was announced at an impressive 3.2% during the week. The growth rate was substantially higher than economists’...

Retail Sales Post Impressive Upside

Economic data releases remained dominant throughout the short trading week as markets were closed on Good Friday in observance of Easter. One of the most notable announcements, however, dealt with retail sales, which grew 1.6% in March...

Earnings Season Takes Center Stage

The highly anticipated quarterly earnings season has kicked off as key names within the banking sector reported results. The initial data appears positive as it relates to sales growth, yet the consensus remains one of broad neutrality...

Strong Start to the Second Quarter

Global equity markets posted an impressive weekly upside that initially stemmed from unexpectedly strong Chinese manufacturing data and was fueled by a strong domestic labor market report later in the week. The FTSE All World Equity...

Strong Finish to the First Quarter

Global equities managed to finish the first three months of the year on a very positive note. The FTSE All World Equity Index gained over 12.10% and is now in positive territory for the past 12 months. The importance of such gains...

European Growth Remains in Focus

Global economic growth concerns dominated headlines during the week as the latest manufacturing data from major European economies cast a shadow on the potential for continued momentum in the region. More specifically, Germany’s...

Consumer Strength Boosts Sentiment

The highly anticipated January retail sales report was announced with excitement early last week as we learned that retail sales posted an impressively unexpected upside relative to economists’ estimates. This occurred on the...

Assessing the Labor Market

The Labor Department’s February 2019 report grasped media headlines late in the week as we learned that the economy added a mere 20,000 private jobs during the month. The expectation was for 180,000 jobs. Although the figure...

Economic Growth Remains in Focus

The release of fourth quarter 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) dominated headlines in the early part of the week as we learned that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.6%. Expectations were for 2.2%. Although it’s...

Winning Streak for Domestic Equity Markets

Global equity markets managed to post yet another week of positive gains as the potential for positive trade outcomes between the U.S. and China gained renewed media attention. Gains across U.S. equity indices managed to fare the best...

Equity Market Strength

Global equity market upside was once again a dominant talking point during the week as gains proved positive. The domestic large capitalization Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 gained an impressive 2.56% while smaller publicly traded...

Positive Gains for Domestic Equities

Domestic equity indices managed to squeeze a gain during the week despite noise from political and economic sources. Most impressive of all, however, dollar upside surged by more than 1.10% while oil prices, as depicted by Brent Crude...

Labor Market Strength Remains Intact

The highly anticipated January 2019 labor market report was released last week, and the data revealed an addition of 304,000 private payrolls, surpassing expectations by an impressively wide margin. The three-month average now stands...

Near-Term Optimism Remains in Focus

Friday’s announcement that a short-term three-week deal was reached to reopen the Federal government proved to be a positive sentiment sign across markets. Although excessive gains failed to materialize, global equity markets had...

The Ease of Pessimism

News of an economic slowdown have remained rampant over the past week, despite strong global equity market performance. The fact remains, however, that taking a pessimistic stance on the current economic landscape is very easy, which...

Our View of 2019

Increasingly Optimistic Wage growth remains in our top spot for 2019, similar to our 2018 stance. The impressive payroll gains of the currently mature tight labor market have yet to fully translate to higher hourly earnings. The...

Focus Remains on Trade Talks

A perceived positive and hopeful outcome from the U.S. – China trade talks may have been a catalyst for global equity market upside during the week. Although nothing definitive was communicated, the fact that there was nothing...

Focusing on Consumer Strength

The New Year appears to have started on the right economic foot, so to speak. Although we’ve been proponents of favoring equity market participation throughout the entire downside volatility in late 2018, developments during the...

Risk Remains Favorable

Global equity markets bucked their recent downside and managed to post positive return figures during the week. Most notably, the large capitalization Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 closed the week higher by 2.89% after having...

The Noise of Short-Term Volatility

This week we’d like to revisit our previously published educational piece discussing the noise of short-term volatility. Given the current market environment, the subjective nature of coping with the volatility may be to exit...

Fundamentals Remain Attractive

It remains difficult to maintain a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. consumer, and therefore on the U.S. economy, given the broad data tied to the labor market, wage growth, retail sales, and overall consumer and small business sentiment...

What's with the Volatility?

Global equity markets erased the impressive gains they posted the week following Thanksgiving by capturing notable downside last week. Despite the fact that U.S. equity markets traded on a shortened week in honor of President H.W....

The U.S. Equity Market & Interest Rates

This week we’d like to re-visit our recently updated educational piece on the rise of interest rates alongside equity market returns, as depicted by the 10 Year Yield and the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500. We’ve...

The Downside of Technology...Stocks

Equity market volatility remained rampant during the shortened holiday week and the catalyst stemmed from downside in the technology sector. Although most domestic equities yielded losses, the precipitous downside of major technology...

Tariffs ON. Tariffs OFF. Which is it?

The week started off on a volatile note following comments from the White House that additional tariffs would be implemented on Chinese goods. In addition to such tariffs, the idea of raising the threshold on already established...

Moving Past the Midterm Elections

The hype surrounding the midterm elections has finally subsided. The results yielded the highly anticipated outcome of a standstill Congress. Republicans control the U.S. Senate and Democrats control the House. As we gauge what this...

Correcting the Economic Disconnect

Over the past few weeks we have discussed about the ongoing disconnect of equity market prices to the fundamental well-being of the economy. Although we know that the economy is not the equity market, the two can often complement each...

Economic Growth Downplays Volatility

Global equity markets have remained at the forefront of media attention over the past few weeks and the downside that has been evident has investors questioning the near-term outlook of equity markets. The MSCI World Equity Index, as...

Earnings in the Spotlight

The quarterly earnings season is once again upon us and the results, thus far, have been positive and remain to par with expectations. With nearly 20% of companies having reported earnings, with a vast majority being within the...

Our View of 2018

In this week’s weekly market commentary, we want to revisit our initial assessment of global equity markets for 2018, as addressed in late December 2017. The notion of increased upside, without the possibility for volatility, was...

Healthy Signs of a Mature Labor Market

The highly anticipated September labor market report was announced during the week and the results could not have been more debated. The economy added 134,000 private jobs last month and the report was announced with a positive net two...

Non-Eventful Interest Rate Increase

The highly anticipated announcement from the Federal Reserve became a reality on Wednesday when we learned that interest rates increased by an additional 0.25%, as it relates to the interest rate controlled by the Federal Reserve...

An Unexpected Shift in Performance

The on-going trade discussions between the U.S. and China, as well as that of Canada, have remained important sentiment drivers for U.S. and international equity markets. In fact, the upside volatility of the dollar in 2018 has been a...

Consumer Strength Remains Intact

Tracking the health of the consumer can be a tremendous benefit to gauging the potential for near-term economic growth and the near-term earnings capability for major U.S. companies. Data throughout the week revealed a fairly upbeat...

Labor Market Resilience

The highly anticipated August labor market report was announced last week and the results were significantly better than anticipated, especially as it relates to growth of hourly earnings. The economy added 204,000 private jobs for the...

Economic Data Drives Positive Sentiment

The highly anticipated revision of second quarter annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth was announced with flying colors last week. The 4.2% revision proved higher than the original announcement of 4.1% and also managed to...

The Discrepancy of Domestic and International Markets

Record equity market highs were once again dominant in the U.S. as the domestic Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 closed above its January 2018 level. The upside comes as a positive surprise following the mild volatility in late July....

The Quick Reversal of Downside

The reversal of equity market sentiment remained pronounced during the week as the downside volatility that commenced in the early part of the month was entirely erased through last Friday. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) gained 0...

A Rate Quiet Week

We concluded that the week remained quiet given the lack of major political or economic data points that could be classified as reasons for volatility. This isn’t to say that data points remained quiet. On the contrary, important...

Humming Along

Data tied to economic activity and consumer well-being proved utterly positive during the week as the economy appears to be humming along at a steady pace. We have been firm believers of economic strength over the past few years and...

All Eyes on Exciting Economic Growth

The latest release of gross domestic product (GDP) growth was a highly anticipated and exciting event. Economists’ consensus estimates hovered around 4.2% for the second quarter annualized figure while the actual data was...

More Tariffs. Maybe. Or Not.

The threat of additional tariffs on all imported Chinese goods appeared to dominate media headlines last week as President Trump alluded to the idea. Our first impression was one of confusion as to the objective nature of this...

Inflation Data Pointing in the Right Direction

The roller coaster of politically driven sentiment appeared to take a backseat during the week as broad economic data points drove market behavior, as should always be the case. Such data was centered on inflation figures for both...

Strong Fundamentals Overshadowed by Politics

Downside volatility was evident across all major indices during the week as comments from the White House tied to curbing Chinese investments domestically and resulted in increased trade war concerns. More specifically, the...

Tariff Threats Overshadow Economic Health

Economic data releases remained light during the week as market sentiment was driven mainly by rhetoric tied to trade wars. The United States may be looking to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods, adding on to...

An Uneventful Interest Rate Increase

The highly anticipated announcement from the Federal Reserve during the week revealed that interest rates rose by 0.25%, as it relates to the Federal Funds interest rate, which is the only one controlled by the Fed. The interest rate,...

A Rebound in Global Equity Markets

The broad strength of the U.S. economy, as well as reduced negative rhetoric tied to European politics, has resulted in broad equity market gains in June. The MSCI World Equity index has gained 2.19% for the month with the vast...

The Relentless Strength of the Labor Market

The May 2018 labor market report was welcomed with high spirits during the week as we learned that the economy added 223,000 private jobs relative to the 190,000 expectation. Although the upside surprise is impressive, this report...

Are the Days of Great Service a Thing of the Past?

Imagine this. You’re running late one morning, the kids all need handwritten notes for after school pick-up, and everyone decides they want to pack their lunch that very morning. If you happen to know me, you know that running...

Press Release

Leading Indiana and Michigan financial firms join forces for the future. Hefty Wealth Partners and Oak Point Wealth Management announce the completion of their successful merger, and are excited to reveal the new company name: Credent...

Understanding Value Investing

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffet Appropriate balance sheet analysis is a crucial step in formulating the investable individual equity landscape for the...

10-Year Annualized Rolling Returns

The chart below is a continuation from our 2014 series and tracks the 10-year rolling annualized returns of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index. Each year represents returns from the previous ten years and it includes the year...

Inflation Over Time

A modest 2% inflation can severely lower the value of your assets over the long-term. Higher equity exposure over longer market cycles has historically been an effective way to combat the risk of inflation. Internally, we envision a...

Sharks and Vending Machines

Sociology was one of my favorite courses in college. Not only did my professor make the topic intriguing but the overall study of sociology possessed a balanced understanding of how people should act relative to how they actually act....

Risk vs. Uncertainty

The concepts of risk and uncertainty are often mistakenly intertwined across financial media and across the financial services industry. The difference between the two, however, cannot be more drastic. Uncertainty falls in the category...

Politics and Inflation – for week ending March 16th, 2018

Politics and inflation expectations dominated financial media headlines during the week. The highly anticipated inflation reading failed to notably stir fear across market participants as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced at...

The Labor Market Strikes Again – for week ending March 9th, 2018

Global equity markets surged last week as news tied to the labor market proved utterly optimistic. The U.S. economy added 313,000 private sector jobs in February and the report revealed an upward two month revision of 54,000 jobs from...

Fiscal Policy Generates Market Jitters – for week ending March 2nd, 2018

Volatility remained decisive throughout the week and was largely attributed to comments from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, as well as the announcement from President Trump concerning tariffs on imported steel. As it...

Economic and Fiscal Momentum Remain Intact – for week ending February 23rd, 2018

Global equity markets remained largely upbeat during the week as positive sentiment appeared to push prices higher, albeit modestly. Emerging markets remained at the forefront with a gain of 1.42%, as depicted by the MSCI EM Index....

Inflation Fears Amidst Market Rebound – for week ending February 16th, 2018

Global equity markets surged with a vengeance during the week and eased fears that further downside would continue in the immediate short-term. The gains appeared fairly broad based and were met with impressive flows from institutional...

SP500 Drawdown

Annual Volatility volatility is almost always associated with losing value. Although that’s true for those investors that willfully liquidate their holdings, long-term investors have historically seen tremendous benefits from...

Our View of 2018

Increasingly Optimistic Wage growth remains in our top spot for 2018, similar to our 2017 stance. As the labor market further matures and as the supply for skilled labor dwindles lower, hourly earnings may see further upside pressure....