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Tuesday, May 19, 2020

The global economic shock since early March has been one of historic proportions. It is likely safe to assume that all of us have felt its impact, or at least know of someone that has been adversely affected. As we now start to...

 

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Weakness in key economic data points should not be a surprise to market participants by now. It has been highly evident over the past month that economic forecasts by economists have failed to appropriately capture the magnitude of...

 

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

The highly anticipated quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) contraction became a reality last week as we finally got a preliminary sense of how COVID-19 has impacted economic growth. The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized pace of...

 

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020

The on-going release of weak economic data points across the globe is now in its second week and there’s no hiding the fact that an economic contraction is inevitable. Further weakness across key sectors continues to be expected...

 

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Monday, April 13, 2020

Bear markets can be categorized as structural, cyclical, or event-driven, with each having their own unique set of characteristics. Although it’s important to recognize the impact that each bear market can have on financial...

 

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

It has become widely known by now that the current status of the equity bear market was achieved at the fastest pace in U.S. history. After all, if you simply recall the media headlines of early March you will find a drastic contrast...

 

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

The on-going coronavirus issues that have recently plagued the global economy appeared to take a minor break during the week as its effect on global equity market activity did not materialize with a similar fury as what we experienced...

 

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

The unprecedented equity market volatility last week set the record for the fastest correction in U.S. history. The speed at which the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index dropped from its record high, down to a -11.50% downside,...

 

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

We have been using the term ‘uncertainty’ a lot lately and it appears that the on-going roller coaster of news stemming from the coronavirus may cause us to continue using that term over the next few months. Internally, the...

 

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Global equity markets gained ground last week as positive sentiment tied to the containment efforts of the coronavirus proved optimistic. Domestic economic data releases may have also spurred upside given the continued general...

 

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Global equity markets captured impressive upside during the week as news from China eased immediate concerns for an economic slowdown in the region. China’s central bank added additional stimulus and managed to reaffirm the...

 

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Global equity market volatility has gained tremendous attention over the past few weeks as major indices captured marginal downside. The on-going news tied to the coronavirus has been largely blamed for the recent volatility as...

 

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Economic data points remained relatively light during the week and left investors with few objective factors to consider when gauging risk sentiment. News of the coronavirus outbreak in China was immediately targeted as the culprit for...

 

Monday, January 20, 2020

Positive economic and trade related events boosted investors’ optimism during the week as many global equity indices reached new highs. Wednesday’s ceremonial signing of the Phase One trade deal with China provided for a...

 

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

The highly anticipated December 2019 labor market report was released last week, and the data revealed the initial trend for a potential return to normalcy. The economy added 145,000 jobs, a figure that was below economists’...

 

Thursday, January 9, 2020

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific adviceor recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your...

 

Monday, January 6, 2020

The New Year started off with what appeared to be promising momentum on the trade front with China. President Trump’s recent announcement that a ‘Phase One’ trade deal would be signed by both parties on January 15 was...

 

Monday, December 30, 2019

Justified optimism. Those two words summarize our view of the year, especially as it relates to global equity market activity and that of consumer health. The start of the year proved to be rather tumultuous following the equity market...

 

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

The potential for a new trade deal with China remained high during the week as we learned that a solution may be near. Comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that a deal may be completed in January and that both sides would...

 

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

The highly anticipated interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve revealed a rather interesting outlook during the week. Although interest rates will remain unchanged for the near-term, we learned that the likelihood of a similar...

 

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Economic data releases remained plentiful during the week, yet it was the release of the November labor market report that stole the limelight. The U.S. economy added an impressive 266,000 private jobs last month. The report also...

 

Monday, December 2, 2019

The latest revision of third quarter annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth revealed a higher than expected figure at 2.1% relative to the previous 1.9%. Although the absolute growth rate remains below historical norms, the...

 

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

The on-going tug-of-war tied to positive and negative trade talk developments with China remained largely unchanged during the week. The uncertainty surrounding a potential truce, or any form of a trade deal, failed to materialize as...

 

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Media headlines remained rampant during the week as trade talk developments and impeachment proceedings provided an abundance of material for amplified and highly subjective conclusions. The effects of such headlines played a critical...

 

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

The fundamental well-being of the economy took center stage during the week and became a driver of sentiment for equities. Earnings have certainly been a positive driver, yet sentiment tied to risk assets has favored economic...

 

Monday, November 4, 2019

The abundance of data releases last week provided for an objective assessment of economic health as well as a glimpse of overall investor sentiment tied to non-political data. The FTSE All-World equity index gained 1.35% while the...

 

Monday, October 28, 2019

The lack of political and trade related influence during the week allowed market participants to focus on the current earnings season, along with macroeconomic data releases, as the main factors for market activity. Although such a...

 

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

The quarterly earnings season remained vibrant during the week as results managed to post minimal upside surprises, something that was largely unexpected. Approximately 15% of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 companies have reported...

 

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Edison Byzyka, CFA, of discusses economic activity and capital markets with the TD Ameritrade Network. Click Here to View Video The information provided here is for general information only and should not be considered an...

 

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Positive sentiment reigned supreme across the globe last week as broad equity indices gained upside and overall news favored the potential for trade resolutions. Discussions between the U.S. and China raised renewed hopes for a deal...

 

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

U.S. manufacturing data dominated headlines during the week as we learned of a notable slump in the sector that dragged the ISM Manufacturing Index into a deeper contractionary phase and has now resulted in a reading that matches a...

 

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

It’s widely known that market participants highly dislike uncertainty, irrespective of whether markets move higher or lower. The current negotiations for a better trade deal with China have more than produced their fair share of...

 

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The highly anticipated interest rate cut announcement by the Federal Reserve proved to be a rather muted event last week given that market participants had priced-in the decision. Global equity markets shrugged off the actual event...

 

Monday, September 16, 2019

News over the weekend of an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries sent Brent Crude oil prices soaring by as much as 12% and brought into question the current supply of oil inventories in the event of a true catastrophic event....

 

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

The hopeful shiny glimmers of a renewed trade deal with China were once again largely responsible for the upside across global equity markets last week. Although it’s hard for us to objectively quantify such an outcome, we are...

 

Friday, September 6, 2019

Edison Byzyka, CFA, discusses economic activity and capital markets with the TD Ameritrade Network. Click Here to View Video The information provided here is for general information only and should not be considered an individualized...

 

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

The second revision of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second quarter revealed a 2% annualized rate, matching economists’ expectations and revealing a decline from the initial 2.1% figure. The lower revision...

 

Monday, August 26, 2019

It appears that the U.S. and China have entered into a game of tag, of which the consequences have tremendous implications across global equity markets, monetary policy decisions, and investor sentiment. The FTSE All World equity index...

 

Monday, August 19, 2019

The balance of positive economic news during the week appeared to blend well with the on-going trade war uncertainties between the U.S. and China. Such a noted blend, however, did not come without the expense of strong volatility, both...

 

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Global equity markets started the week on a worrisome note following the Chinese government’s decision to devalue their currency, an action that was a direct result of further tariffs proposed, and initiated, by President Trump....

 

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

The events that transpired during this past week were undoubtedly vast and equally critical to the assessment of investors’ sentiment toward equity markets and the overall economy. Whether evaluating the Federal Reserve’s...

 

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Our headline for this week’s commentary may sound counterintuitive given that higher consumer spending does not typically correlate well with slower economic growth. In fact, it should boost upside given that consumer consumption...

 

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

The highly anticipated quarterly earnings season is well underway, and the focus will remain glued to the potential for upside surprise to earnings. The reason for such needed hype stems from the fact that the expectations are set for...

 

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Global equity markets failed to post gains during the week as the looming uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy appeared to once again remain a dominant talking point. Despite such lack of clarity, however, U.S. large capitalization...

 

Monday, July 8, 2019

The path of interest rates for the remainder of the year has become a focal point for economists and investors alike. The Federal Reserve’s data dependency stance, which indicates that their decision for lowering, or raising,...

 

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Global market participants pushed equity prices higher during the week as sentiment appeared to favor a hopeful and positive outcome tied to trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The catalyst for the upbeat sentiment can be...

 

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

The news from the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting during the week indicated that interest rates in the U.S. will remain as is for the immediate future. Although global market participants were not...

 

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Positive risk-on sentiment toward global equities appeared dominant early in the week following announcements that a deal between the U.S. and Mexico had been reached, although nothing definitive was released. The news came on the...

 

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

The lingering downside effects of potential Mexico tariffs were highly expected to dominate market sentiment throughout the week, yet that notion did not materialize as conventional wisdom may have suggested. The Federal Reserve...

 

Monday, June 3, 2019

Potential trade war escalations were highly evident during the week as the rhetoric between the United States and China substantially increased. Equity market participants punished risk assets to the downside as a near-term solution...

 

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Global equity markets favored downside volatility during the week as investors were once again attempting to gauge uncertainty tied to the trade discussions between the U.S. and China. The domestic Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500...

 

Monday, May 20, 2019

Amidst the on-going trade discussions between the U.S. and China, domestic data releases during the week provided a positive glimpse on overall sentiment figures for consumers and for small businesses. The positive upside to both...

 

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China resumed violently during the week as the President tweeted on Sunday, May 5th, on the intentions of increasing Chinese tariffs to as high as 25% from the current 10% tariff. The net...

 

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

Economic data throughout the week proved to be a balance of disappointing manufacturing data from China, neutral earnings announcements from U.S. corporations, and better than expected economic growth data in Europe, which was highly...

 

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

The preliminary release of annualized domestic economic growth (gross domestic product) for the first quarter of 2019 was announced at an impressive 3.2% during the week. The growth rate was substantially higher than economists’...

 

Monday, April 22, 2019

Economic data releases remained dominant throughout the short trading week as markets were closed on Good Friday in observance of Easter. One of the most notable announcements, however, dealt with retail sales, which grew 1.6% in March...

 

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

The highly anticipated quarterly earnings season has kicked off as key names within the banking sector reported results. The initial data appears positive as it relates to sales growth, yet the consensus remains one of broad neutrality...

 

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Global equity markets posted an impressive weekly upside that initially stemmed from unexpectedly strong Chinese manufacturing data and was fueled by a strong domestic labor market report later in the week. The FTSE All World Equity...

 

Monday, April 1, 2019

Global equities managed to finish the first three months of the year on a very positive note. The FTSE All World Equity Index gained over 12.10% and is now in positive territory for the past 12 months. The importance of such gains...

 

Monday, March 25, 2019

Global economic growth concerns dominated headlines during the week as the latest manufacturing data from major European economies cast a shadow on the potential for continued momentum in the region. More specifically, Germany’s...

 

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The highly anticipated January retail sales report was announced with excitement early last week as we learned that retail sales posted an impressively unexpected upside relative to economists’ estimates. This occurred on the...

 

Monday, March 11, 2019

The Labor Department’s February 2019 report grasped media headlines late in the week as we learned that the economy added a mere 20,000 private jobs during the month. The expectation was for 180,000 jobs. Although the figure...

 

Monday, March 4, 2019

The release of fourth quarter 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) dominated headlines in the early part of the week as we learned that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.6%. Expectations were for 2.2%. Although it’s...

 

Monday, February 25, 2019

Global equity markets managed to post yet another week of positive gains as the potential for positive trade outcomes between the U.S. and China gained renewed media attention. Gains across U.S. equity indices managed to fare the best...

 

Monday, February 18, 2019

Global equity market upside was once again a dominant talking point during the week as gains proved positive. The domestic large capitalization Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 gained an impressive 2.56% while smaller publicly traded...

 

Monday, February 11, 2019

Domestic equity indices managed to squeeze a gain during the week despite noise from political and economic sources. Most impressive of all, however, dollar upside surged by more than 1.10% while oil prices, as depicted by Brent Crude...

 

Monday, February 4, 2019

The highly anticipated January 2019 labor market report was released last week, and the data revealed an addition of 304,000 private payrolls, surpassing expectations by an impressively wide margin. The three-month average now stands...

 

Monday, January 28, 2019

Friday’s announcement that a short-term three-week deal was reached to reopen the Federal government proved to be a positive sentiment sign across markets. Although excessive gains failed to materialize, global equity markets had...

 

Monday, January 21, 2019

News of an economic slowdown have remained rampant over the past week, despite strong global equity market performance. The fact remains, however, that taking a pessimistic stance on the current economic landscape is very easy, which...

 

Monday, January 14, 2019

Increasingly Optimistic Wage growth remains in our top spot for 2019, similar to our 2018 stance. The impressive payroll gains of the currently mature tight labor market have yet to fully translate to higher hourly earnings. The...

 

Monday, January 14, 2019

A perceived positive and hopeful outcome from the U.S. – China trade talks may have been a catalyst for global equity market upside during the week. Although nothing definitive was communicated, the fact that there was nothing...

 

Monday, January 7, 2019

The New Year appears to have started on the right economic foot, so to speak. Although we’ve been proponents of favoring equity market participation throughout the entire downside volatility in late 2018, developments during the...

 

Monday, December 31, 2018

Global equity markets bucked their recent downside and managed to post positive return figures during the week. Most notably, the large capitalization Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 closed the week higher by 2.89% after having...

 

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

This week we’d like to revisit our previously published educational piece discussing the noise of short-term volatility. Given the current market environment, the subjective nature of coping with the volatility may be to exit...

 

Monday, December 17, 2018

It remains difficult to maintain a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. consumer, and therefore on the U.S. economy, given the broad data tied to the labor market, wage growth, retail sales, and overall consumer and small business sentiment...

 

Monday, December 10, 2018

Global equity markets erased the impressive gains they posted the week following Thanksgiving by capturing notable downside last week. Despite the fact that U.S. equity markets traded on a shortened week in honor of President H.W....

 

Monday, December 3, 2018

This week we’d like to re-visit our recently updated educational piece on the rise of interest rates alongside equity market returns, as depicted by the 10 Year Yield and the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500. We’ve...

 

Monday, November 26, 2018

Equity market volatility remained rampant during the shortened holiday week and the catalyst stemmed from downside in the technology sector. Although most domestic equities yielded losses, the precipitous downside of major technology...

 

Monday, November 19, 2018

The week started off on a volatile note following comments from the White House that additional tariffs would be implemented on Chinese goods. In addition to such tariffs, the idea of raising the threshold on already established...

 

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The hype surrounding the midterm elections has finally subsided. The results yielded the highly anticipated outcome of a standstill Congress. Republicans control the U.S. Senate and Democrats control the House. As we gauge what this...

 

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Over the past few weeks we have discussed about the ongoing disconnect of equity market prices to the fundamental well-being of the economy. Although we know that the economy is not the equity market, the two can often complement each...

 

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Global equity markets have remained at the forefront of media attention over the past few weeks and the downside that has been evident has investors questioning the near-term outlook of equity markets. The MSCI World Equity Index, as...

 

Monday, October 22, 2018

The quarterly earnings season is once again upon us and the results, thus far, have been positive and remain to par with expectations. With nearly 20% of companies having reported earnings, with a vast majority being within the...

 

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

In this week’s weekly market commentary, we want to revisit our initial assessment of global equity markets for 2018, as addressed in late December 2017. The notion of increased upside, without the possibility for volatility, was...

 

Monday, October 8, 2018

The highly anticipated September labor market report was announced during the week and the results could not have been more debated. The economy added 134,000 private jobs last month and the report was announced with a positive net two...

 

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

The highly anticipated announcement from the Federal Reserve became a reality on Wednesday when we learned that interest rates increased by an additional 0.25%, as it relates to the interest rate controlled by the Federal Reserve...

 

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

The on-going trade discussions between the U.S. and China, as well as that of Canada, have remained important sentiment drivers for U.S. and international equity markets. In fact, the upside volatility of the dollar in 2018 has been a...

 

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Tracking the health of the consumer can be a tremendous benefit to gauging the potential for near-term economic growth and the near-term earnings capability for major U.S. companies. Data throughout the week revealed a fairly upbeat...

 

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

The highly anticipated August labor market report was announced last week and the results were significantly better than anticipated, especially as it relates to growth of hourly earnings. The economy added 204,000 private jobs for the...

 

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

The highly anticipated revision of second quarter annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth was announced with flying colors last week. The 4.2% revision proved higher than the original announcement of 4.1% and also managed to...

 

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Record equity market highs were once again dominant in the U.S. as the domestic Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 closed above its January 2018 level. The upside comes as a positive surprise following the mild volatility in late July....

 

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

The reversal of equity market sentiment remained pronounced during the week as the downside volatility that commenced in the early part of the month was entirely erased through last Friday. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) gained 0...

 

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Please join Edison Byzyka, Doug Lockwood, Brian Neal, and Layton Ginder for coffee and an opportunity to ask about, and discuss, the current economic landscape. Click Here to View the Invitation!

 

Monday, August 13, 2018

We concluded that the week remained quiet given the lack of major political or economic data points that could be classified as reasons for volatility. This isn’t to say that data points remained quiet. On the contrary, important...

 

Monday, August 6, 2018

Data tied to economic activity and consumer well-being proved utterly positive during the week as the economy appears to be humming along at a steady pace. We have been firm believers of economic strength over the past few years and...

 

Monday, July 30, 2018

The latest release of gross domestic product (GDP) growth was a highly anticipated and exciting event. Economists’ consensus estimates hovered around 4.2% for the second quarter annualized figure while the actual data was...

 

Monday, July 23, 2018

The threat of additional tariffs on all imported Chinese goods appeared to dominate media headlines last week as President Trump alluded to the idea. Our first impression was one of confusion as to the objective nature of this...

 

Monday, July 16, 2018

The roller coaster of politically driven sentiment appeared to take a backseat during the week as broad economic data points drove market behavior, as should always be the case. Such data was centered on inflation figures for both...

 

Monday, July 2, 2018

Downside volatility was evident across all major indices during the week as comments from the White House tied to curbing Chinese investments domestically and resulted in increased trade war concerns. More specifically, the...

 

Monday, June 25, 2018

Economic data releases remained light during the week as market sentiment was driven mainly by rhetoric tied to trade wars. The United States may be looking to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods, adding on to...

 

Monday, June 18, 2018

The highly anticipated announcement from the Federal Reserve during the week revealed that interest rates rose by 0.25%, as it relates to the Federal Funds interest rate, which is the only one controlled by the Fed. The interest rate,...

 

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

The broad strength of the U.S. economy, as well as reduced negative rhetoric tied to European politics, has resulted in broad equity market gains in June. The MSCI World Equity index has gained 2.19% for the month with the vast...

 

Monday, June 4, 2018

The May 2018 labor market report was welcomed with high spirits during the week as we learned that the economy added 223,000 private jobs relative to the 190,000 expectation. Although the upside surprise is impressive, this report...

 

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Imagine this. You’re running late one morning, the kids all need handwritten notes for after school pick-up, and everyone decides they want to pack their lunch that very morning. If you happen to know me, you know that running...

 

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Leading Indiana and Michigan financial firms join forces for the future. Hefty Wealth Partners and Oak Point Wealth Management announce the completion of their successful merger, and are excited to reveal the new company name: Credent...

 

Thursday, March 22, 2018

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffet Appropriate balance sheet analysis is a crucial step in formulating the investable individual equity landscape for the...

 

Thursday, March 22, 2018

The chart below is a continuation from our 2014 series and tracks the 10-year rolling annualized returns of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index. Each year represents returns from the previous ten years and it includes the year...

 

Thursday, March 22, 2018

A modest 2% inflation can severely lower the value of your assets over the long-term. Higher equity exposure over longer market cycles has historically been an effective way to combat the risk of inflation. Internally, we envision a...

 

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Sociology was one of my favorite courses in college. Not only did my professor make the topic intriguing but the overall study of sociology possessed a balanced understanding of how people should act relative to how they actually act....

 

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The concepts of risk and uncertainty are often mistakenly intertwined across financial media and across the financial services industry. The difference between the two, however, cannot be more drastic. Uncertainty falls in the category...

 

Friday, March 16, 2018

Politics and inflation expectations dominated financial media headlines during the week. The highly anticipated inflation reading failed to notably stir fear across market participants as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced at...

 

Friday, March 9, 2018

Global equity markets surged last week as news tied to the labor market proved utterly optimistic. The U.S. economy added 313,000 private sector jobs in February and the report revealed an upward two month revision of 54,000 jobs from...

 

Friday, March 2, 2018

Volatility remained decisive throughout the week and was largely attributed to comments from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, as well as the announcement from President Trump concerning tariffs on imported steel. As it...

 

Friday, February 23, 2018

Global equity markets remained largely upbeat during the week as positive sentiment appeared to push prices higher, albeit modestly. Emerging markets remained at the forefront with a gain of 1.42%, as depicted by the MSCI EM Index....

 

Friday, February 16, 2018

Global equity markets surged with a vengeance during the week and eased fears that further downside would continue in the immediate short-term. The gains appeared fairly broad based and were met with impressive flows from institutional...

 

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Annual Volatility volatility is almost always associated with losing value. Although that’s true for those investors that willfully liquidate their holdings, long-term investors have historically seen tremendous benefits from...

 

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Increasingly Optimistic Wage growth remains in our top spot for 2018, similar to our 2017 stance. As the labor market further matures and as the supply for skilled labor dwindles lower, hourly earnings may see further upside pressure....